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Effect of Population Aging on Proportionate Mortality From Heart Disease and Cancer, U.S. 2000–2050

Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago.

Address correspondence to Dr. Jacob Brody, Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1603 W. Taylor St., M/C923, Chicago, IL 60612-3494. E-mail: Brodyj{at}uic.edu

Objectives. One-fourth of all deaths in the United States occur after age 85 (646,900 of 2,392,619 total deaths in 1999). By 2050 (assuming 1999 age-specific death rates), 47.4% of all deaths will occur after age 85 (2,994,935 of 6,314,725 total deaths). As we age, heart disease becomes increasingly important relative to cancer as a cause of death. Thus, as age at death is postponed, future populations will be dying of different age-specific causes. The study objective was to project the effect of population aging on future proportionate mortality rates for heart disease and cancer.

Methods. Using Census Bureau population projections and assuming 1999 age-specific death rates, the authors calculated the number of deaths from heart disease, cancer, and all causes in 10-year intervals from 2000 to 2050.

Results. During this period, the total number of deaths for heart disease and cancer will increase 2.8-fold and 2.3-fold, respectively. The proportionate mortality rate for heart disease will increase from 30% to 33%, and the rate for cancer will drop from 23% to 20%.

Discussion. Changes in age distribution between now and 2050 will cause heart disease to increase its dominance over all other causes of death, and proportionate mortality for cancer will decline.