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Longitudinal Selectivity in Aging Populations

Separating Mortality-Associated Versus Experimental Components in the Berlin Aging Study (BASE)

Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany.

Address correspondence to Paul B. Baltes, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, D-14195 Berlin, Germany; to Ulman Lindenberger, Saarland University, School of Psychology, Im Stadtwald, Building 1, D-66123 Saarbrücken, Germany; or to Tania Singer, Functional Imaging Laboratory, Wellcome Department of Imaging Neuroscience, 12 Queen Square, WC1N 3BG London, UK. E-mail: sekbaltes{at}mpib-berlin.mpg.de, lindenberger{at}mx.uni-saarland.de, or t.singer{at}fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk

The authors examined 3.7-year selectivity in the Berlin Aging Study by comparing the T1 parent sample (N = 516) with the T3 sample (N = 206). Selectivity was partitioned into a mortality-associated component, reflecting the degree to which individuals still alive at T3 (T3 survivors, N = 313) differ from the T1 parent sample (N = 516) from which they originated, and an experimental component, reflecting the degree to which the T3 sample (N = 206) differed from T3 survivors (N = 313). Across 48 variables representing medical, sensorimotor, cognitive, personality-related, and socioeconomic domains, the mortality-associated component accounted for 64% of total selectivity, and the experimental component for 36% (0.18 vs 0.10 SD units; t = 7.20, p < .01). Except for age and intelligence, experimental selectivity effects regarding means and prevalence rates were generally small. Partitioning selectivity into mortality-associated and experimental components is a useful tool in the longitudinal study of aging populations.

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