Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, Vol 54, Issue 4 S184-S193, Copyright © 1999 by The Gerontological Society of America
Estimating the proportion of americans ever experiencing poverty during their elderly years
MR Rank and T Hirschl
George Warren Brown School of Social Work, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
OBJECTIVES: This study estimates the age-specific and cumulative
proportions of American adults who will experience poverty at some point
during their elderly years. These life-span proportions represent a
substantially different approach to understanding poverty than calculating
either yearly cross-sectional or poverty spell durations. METHODS: Our
estimations are derived through a series of life tables built upon 25 waves
of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). RESULTS: The analyses
indicate that 40% of America's elderly population will experience a year
below the poverty line at some point between the ages of 60 and 90, and 48%
of elders will experience poverty at the 125% level. The data further
reveal that this life-span risk of poverty has remained relatively stable
through the period of data collection (1968-1992). Finally, the likelihood
of elderly Americans ever encountering a year below the poverty line
increases dramatically for those who are Black, not married, and/or who
have less than 12 years of education. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that
in spite of relatively low cross-sectional rates of elderly poverty in
America, the likelihood of impoverishment at some point during the later
years of life remains a very real possibility.
